METHODOLOGY
How ThenPath finds a Rhyme.
ThenPath compares the market's recent path with its own history using one consistent process.
Finding the closest path
For each market we track, ThenPath takes the latest 90 trading days and compares that path with every eligible 90-trading-day period in its available history.
Similarity is measured using Pearson correlation. We multiply the correlation by 100 to create the Rhyme Score, shown to one decimal place.
A higher score means the two paths moved more similarly over those 90 trading days. It does not mean the same outcome is more likely to happen again.
Choosing the Rhyme
ThenPath shows the highest-ranked eligible historical match: the Top 1 Rhyme.
Only information available during the two 90-day comparison windows is used to calculate similarity. What happened afterward has no effect on the Rhyme Score or ranking.
Historical matches must also have a complete 126-trading-day outcome and cannot overlap the current comparison period.
Reading the chart
Both paths are normalized to meet at TODAY = 100.
The current path stops at TODAY. The historical path continues, revealing the next 90 trading days that actually happened during the earlier period.
Below the chart, ThenPath also shows the historical 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month returns, along with the maximum drawdown over the full 6-month period.
What a Rhyme means
A Rhyme is a historical comparison, not a forecast.
Markets can arrive at similar-looking price paths for very different reasons, and similar paths can lead to very different outcomes.
ThenPath shows the historical evidence. What happens next remains unknown.