BROADCOM / IN 1 YEAR
AVGO at $354 in one year?
What could Broadcom be worth if AI semiconductor revenue keeps accelerating?
Three assumptions. Your scenario.
IN 1 YEAR / SCENARIO SHARE PRICE
$353.92
Oct 24, 2027 · USD per share · Undiscounted
Reference: Oct 23, 2026 regular close, the last trading day before the Oct 24 as-of date. Present equivalent uses a fixed 10% annual equity return. Price-only comparison; interim dividends excluded.
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIOS · NOT FORECASTS
Base is reverse-calibrated to the dated market close at a 10% annual return. The same fixed pricing basis is used for Bear, Bull and your edits; these are not independent price targets.
The assumptions do the work.
AI revenue. The rest of Broadcom. Profitability.
Includes custom AI accelerators and AI networking, counted once.
$48.289B estimated FY2026 base → $52.2B in FY2027. Software + non-AI semiconductors.
$110.3B non-GAAP operating income. This margin excludes SBC and certain acquisition-related costs.
The preset values are illustrative user assumptions, not verified consensus forecasts. Operating margin is non-GAAP throughout.
Uses full FY2027 earnings as a proxy at the October 2027 horizon. Broadcom’s fiscal year ends Oct 31, seven days after the scenario date. Non-AI growth uses a full-year FY2026 estimate, not a quarterly annualized revenue figure.
How the valuation works
From revenue to equity.
- AI semiconductor revenue
- $115B
- Non-AI revenue
- $52.2B
- Total FY2027 revenue
- $167.2B
- Non-GAAP operating income · 66%
- $110.3B
- Assumed operating tax · 16%
- −$17.7B
- Adjusted after-tax operating profit
- $92.7B
- Enterprise value · 19.26× adjusted profit
- $1,784.4B
- Less: net debt (principal basis)
- −$37.1B
- Equity value
- $1,747.3B
- Assumed diluted shares
- 4.937B
A reverse-calibrated starting point.
The 19.2555× multiple is solved once so Base’s present-value equivalent matches the verified $321.68 close on Oct 23, 2026. At a fixed 10% annual return, that translates to $353.92 on Oct 24, 2027. This relationship is by construction.
Calibration formula: ($353.92 × 4.937B diluted-share proxy + $37.104B net debt) ÷ Base adjusted after-tax operating profit of $92.669B.
The multiple stays fixed when you move a slider or choose a preset. It is EV / adjusted after-tax operating profit, not P/E, an observed market multiple or an independently justified terminal valuation. It assumes the market retains that pricing basis at the target date; compression or expansion is not modeled.
Capital structure is explicit.
Cash $23.975B and debt principal $61.079B are from Aug 2, 2026. Net debt is held at $37.104B for the target date. The denominator is the Q3 non-GAAP diluted weighted-average share proxy of 4.937B, also held flat. This is not a claim about October shares outstanding or a forecast of buybacks. Future cash generation, dividends, acquisitions and changes in dilution/debt can alter equity value; none is silently added here.
Non-GAAP profitability & model limits
66% is an adjusted margin.
Q3 GAAP operating income was $15.955B, or 53.92% of revenue. The company reconciles it to $20.095B non-GAAP operating income by adding back $2.006B acquisition-related amortization, $2.019B stock compensation and $0.115B restructuring/other charges. That is a 67.91% adjusted margin. Q4 guidance is approximately 66% on the same non-GAAP basis.
The scenario retains this adjusted basis rather than inventing future GAAP adjustments: revenue × chosen non-GAAP margin × (1 − 16% assumed tax). “Adjusted after-tax operating profit” is our derived unlevered metric, not company-reported net income, cash flow or GAAP NOPAT. Stock compensation has economic cost, and the diluted-share proxy does not fully substitute for expensing it.
The 16% tax assumption rounds Q3 adjusted tax of $3.118B divided by adjusted pre-tax earnings of $19.49B. Applying it to operating income is a simplification, not FY2027 tax guidance. Interest and non-operating income are excluded from the metric; debt is deducted once in the equity bridge. Do not also deduct interest after using an enterprise-value multiple.
Fiscal years stay fiscal years.
Estimated FY2026 non-AI revenue = $71.089B nine-month total + $34.8B Q4 total guidance − ($8.4B Q1 AI + $10.8B Q2 AI + $16.7B Q3 AI + $21.7B Q4 AI guidance) = $48.289B. FY2027 non-AI revenue is this base × (1 + chosen growth). Q4 inputs remain guidance, and the AI disclosures are rounded, so the derived annual non-AI baseline is an estimate.
AI includes networking. Non-AI includes infrastructure software and remaining semiconductor revenue; neither networking nor software is added a second time. FY2027 ends Oct 31, 2027 under Broadcom’s Sunday-nearest-October-31 convention. It is used as near-target annual earnings power, not relabeled as trailing twelve months ending Oct 24.
This is a three-input earnings-power scenario, not a full DCF. Customer concentration, custom-accelerator competition, AI networking mix, margins, SBC, supply commitments, new acquisitions and changes in market pricing can materially change outcomes. The presets are not probabilities. Price upside excludes interim dividends and is not total shareholder return.
Verified baseline & sources
- Snapshot / scenario date
- Oct 24, 2026 / Oct 24, 2027
- Reference price
- $321.68 regular close · Oct 23, 2026 · retrieved Oct 24
- Q3 FY2026
- Ended Aug 2, 2026; earnings release Sep 2; 10-Q filed Sep 10
- Q3 total / AI revenue
- $29.591B / $16.7B (AI includes networking)
- Q3 infrastructure software
- $8.752B
- Q4 FY2026 guidance
- $34.8B total; $21.7B AI; approximately 66% non-GAAP operating margin; ends Nov 1
- FY2026 estimated non-AI baseline
- $48.289B; actual nine months plus Q4 guidance, less AI
- Q3 cash / debt principal
- $23.975B / $61.079B · Aug 2, 2026
- Debt carrying value
- $59.419B; the model uses principal, before unamortized issuance costs
- Share-count definitions
- 4.774B actual at Aug 2; 4.887B GAAP diluted; 4.937B adjusted diluted proxy used here
Q3 FY2026 official earnings release & Q4 guidance ↗
Q3 10-Q / SEC: balance sheet, debt note 6, EPS note 5 ↗
Official Q1 AI revenue ↗ · Official Q2 AI revenue ↗
Dated reference close / Stock Analysis ↗ · FT price cross-check ↗
Model avgo-fy27-20261024-v1. Links preserve the original dates, reference quote and all three inputs. This is a dated snapshot, not a live quote. Default social previews use the Base image; downloaded cards reflect the selected scenario.
Your assumptions. Your scenario. Not a forecast or investment recommendation.