Bitcoin’s Closest Rhyme Begins in the Shadow of FTX

The Rhyme

Bitcoin’s 90 daily observations from July 2 through September 29, 2026 most closely resemble the 90-observation stretch from November 26, 2022 through February 23, 2023. Both indexed paths begin well below their common endpoint, spend an extended period moving sideways, then step sharply higher before settling near TODAY = 100. Their Rhyme Score is 97.1, based on Pearson correlation.

What Happened Next

After the February 23, 2023 match endpoint, Bitcoin gained +4.6% over 21 daily observations, +23.1% over 63 observations, and +27.1% over 126 observations. The path was not smooth: its maximum drawdown over that 126-day outcome was -17.6%.

The matched window began soon after FTX filed for bankruptcy. In December 2022, the SEC charged FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried with defrauding investors. By February 2023, the Federal Reserve had raised its target range to 4.50%–4.75%, while the SEC separately announced a settlement that ended Kraken’s U.S. staking-as-a-service program. Those events describe the environment around the historical path; they do not establish what caused each Bitcoin move.

Why This Rhyme Is Interesting

The current 90-observation path gained +35.4% with a maximum drawdown of -7.0%. What makes the rhyme visually striking is not merely the shared endpoint: both paths compress for weeks, break higher near the same relative point, and then consolidate. Bitcoin trades continuously, so these are consecutive daily observations—including weekends—rather than exchange trading days.

Where the Rhyme Breaks

Market access is materially different. The historical match predates U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded products; the SEC approved the listing and trading of several spot bitcoin ETP shares in January 2024. That created a regulated exchange-listed access channel that did not exist during the 2022–23 window.

The policy backdrop has also changed. A March 2025 executive order established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using government-held forfeited bitcoin, and 2026 SEC guidance describes Bitcoin as an example of a digital commodity rather than a security. Neither development removes Bitcoin’s volatility, but both distinguish the present institutional setting from early 2023.

The rate regimes rhyme only loosely. In February 2023, the Fed raised rates to 4.50%–4.75% and said ongoing increases would be appropriate. In September 2026, it raised the range to 3.75%–4.00% while describing inflation as elevated. Both endpoints sit in tightening environments, but the rate levels, prior policy path, and crypto-market structure are different.